{"id":4383,"date":"2015-09-30T06:55:01","date_gmt":"2015-09-30T10:55:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/?p=4383"},"modified":"2022-04-06T15:05:02","modified_gmt":"2022-04-06T19:05:02","slug":"where-stocks-headed-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/where-stocks-headed-next\/","title":{"rendered":"Where Are Stocks Headed Next? Here&#8217;s What The Charts Say&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-4389\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/where-300x272.jpg\" alt=\"Stock market direction\" width=\"300\" height=\"272\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/where-300x272.jpg 300w, https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/where-110x100.jpg 110w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>After a nasty selloff in late August, stocks temporarily gave investors a bit of hope (a <a href=\"https:\/\/new.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/trading-psychology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dangerous emotion<\/a> in trading) by rallying higher in the first half of September, but the bullish enthusiasm was short-lived.<\/p>\n<p>Due to an abundance of overhead supply left in the wake of the August decline, the main stock market indexes\u00a0ran out of gas in mid-September, then headed south again after running into powerful overhead\u00a0resistance of their 50-day moving averages.<\/p>\n<p>Now, as we enter the last quarter of the year, the major indices are toying with\u00a0crucial support of their prior lows from August.<\/p>\n<p>This begs the obvious question on the minds of millions of investors right now;<strong> is the test of August lows a\u00a0buying opportunity <em>OR<\/em> is now the time to shift to cash and\/or sell short\u00a0stocks?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Unlike the omniscient\u00a0&#8220;gurus&#8221; of mainstream financial media, we do NOT claim to have the definitive answer to that question (and it&#8217;s ridiculous to believe anyone who says they do).<\/p>\n<p>But in this article, we do seek to answer that question through<strong> objective,\u00a0&#8220;no nonsense&#8221; technical analysis of the current state of the broad market.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Continue reading for our concise chart reviews of\u00a0the NASDAQ Composite, S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and two other useful confirmation indicators&#8230;<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">TABLE OF CONTENTS<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/where-stocks-headed-next\/#Brief_Buy_Signal\" >Brief Buy Signal<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/where-stocks-headed-next\/#Neutral_OR_Sell\" >Neutral OR Sell?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/where-stocks-headed-next\/#Trade_What_You_See_NOT_What_You_Think\" >Trade What You See, NOT What You Think!<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Brief_Buy_Signal\"><\/span><strong>Brief Buy Signal<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>After\u00a0bouncing off its August low\u00a0(and\u00a0prior\u00a0to running into resistance of its 50-day MA), the NASDAQ\u00a0Composite actually triggered a buy signal in our proprietary <a href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/market-timing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">market timing model<\/a>, which is part mechanical and part discretionary.<\/p>\n<p>The initial buy signal of our timing system is typically mechanical, while the discretionary component\u00a0is designed to <em>confirm<\/em>\u00a0the strength of the signal because all market timing signals are NOT\u00a0created equally.<\/p>\n<p>The actual <strong>confirmation of any\u00a0buy signal is always a <em>process<\/em>, rather than\u00a0a one-day event,<\/strong> because\u00a0it takes a bit of time to gauge the quality and quantity of emerging\u00a0bullish trade setups and fresh\u00a0breakouts to new 52-week highs (if there are any).<\/p>\n<p>Although we cautiously dipped our toes back in the long side of the market after receiving our recent buy signal, heavy volume selling\u00a0suddenly began showing\u00a0up to ruin the party.<\/p>\n<p>This prompted us to write the following in the September 21 issue of <strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Wagner Daily<\/a><\/em><\/strong>: &#8220;With 3 of the past 8 sessions qualifying as distribution, the odds of the current rally following through <em>without further downside<\/em> are very slim. Friday&#8217;s gap down (Sept. 18) also suggests more selling within the next day or two.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Promptly heeding\u00a0the warning of <a href=\"https:\/\/investdaily.custhelp.com\/app\/answers\/detail\/a_id\/276\/~\/what-exactly-is-a-distribution-day-in-a-market-index%3F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bearish distribution days<\/a> without emotion, we notified subscribers the following week that we were cancelling the buy signal and shifting to neutral mode.<\/p>\n<p>Since then, the NASDAQ Composite\u00a0has plunged 6.4%, tumbling lower in<em>\u00a0<\/em>five\u00a0<em>of the last seven<\/em> trading sessions.<\/p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, the broad market\u00a0sell-off\u00a0to test the\u00a0prior lows caused several of our long positions to hit their protective stops, but that&#8217;s\u00a0exactly what our timing model is designed to do; keep traders\u00a0out of trouble by cutting losses when market conditions deteriorate, while\u00a0also\u00a0signaling the best time to jump back into the market and start buying again.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Neutral_OR_Sell\"><\/span><strong>Neutral OR Sell?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Simply put, a weekly close below the August lows (respectively) of the Russell 2000, NASDAQ, or S&amp;P 500 indices would definitively shift our market timing system from &#8220;neutral&#8221; to &#8220;sell&#8221; mode.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s take a look at each of these indexes, so that we may determine how close we are to breaking below those critical support levels.<\/p>\n<p>As of the close of Monday, September 28, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index was the first <em>and only<\/em>\u00a0index to break below its prior low from August:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/150929RUT.png\" alt=\"$RUSSELL 2000\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>Although we said that a break below the prior lows of August would be negative for the market, we find it to be most important whether or not the index\u00a0<em>closes the week<\/em>\u00a0below the crucial area of support.<\/p>\n<p>As such, the performance of the Russell over the next few days could tell us a lot; either the bulls return to buy the &#8220;undercut&#8221; of the prior low OR a lack of buying interest could cause the index to attract more selling momentum, which could send the index on another leg lower.<\/p>\n<p>The benchmark S&amp;P 500 Index may soon follow suit with an undercut of its\u00a0August low:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/150929SPX.png\" alt=\"$S&amp;P 500\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>Due to the strong bounce off its\u00a0August low,\u00a0the NASDAQ Composite Index\u00a0has the best shot of holding up.<\/p>\n<p>On the chart below, notice that the 61.8% and 78.6% <a href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/fibonacci-for-swing-trading\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fibonacci retracement levels<\/a>\u00a0may provide support in the coming days,\u00a0but even if the NASDAQ blows through those levels and slips all the way back down to last month&#8217;s low, <strong>such a move would likely trigger a substantial bounce<\/strong> (at least in the near-term).<\/p>\n<p>If you&#8217;re currently sitting on any <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/s\/short.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">short positions<\/a>\u00a0in the NASDAQ, stay alert and prepared to lock in any swing trading profits on the short side because there is a plethora of support here and just below current levels:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/150929COMPX.png\" alt=\"$Nasdaq Comp.\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>One index we use merely as for <em>confirmation<\/em> of broad market action is the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX).<\/p>\n<p>Generally, <strong>the higher the $VIX index, the more volatility<\/strong> should be expected in the market.<\/p>\n<p>The $VIX held above its 50-day MA last week, and is now back above its 20-day EMA as well, neither of which is a good sign for bulls:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/150929VIX.png\" alt=\"$CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX \" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>Since\u00a0most stock market rallies in recent years have coincided\u00a0with a selloff in treasury bonds, the daily chart pattern of iShares 20+ Year T-Bond ETF ($TLT) can be useful at helping to anticipate the stock market&#8217;s next move. Take a look:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/\/~rick\/\/charts\/2014\/150929TLT.png\" alt=\"$TLT 20-3O YEAR BOND \" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>The current bounce in the bond market may soon find resistance at its 40-week MA (similar to the 200-day MA)\u00a0and bearish reversal candle in late August. If it does, it could aid the bullish case for stocks.<\/p>\n<p>However, even if the long-term bond index fails to push above the August high, it still may <em>not\u00a0<\/em>lead to a stock market sell-off right away.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, the index could chop around in the $115 to $118 area, near the recent lows, for quite some time (the major market averages could go into &#8220;chop mode&#8221; as well).<\/p>\n<p>A best case scenario for supporting a stock market rally would be a breakdown below $115 in $TLT.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Trade_What_You_See_NOT_What_You_Think\"><\/span><strong>Trade What You See, NOT What You Think!<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>With our style of trading, the focus is placed on what the market is doing <em>right now<\/em>, and NOT\u00a0what it could be doing in the future.<\/p>\n<p>The roadside is littered with the remains of traders who &#8220;had a strong hunch&#8221; or were &#8220;quite certain&#8221; the market will move in a particular direction.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s why we live by the mantra to always\u00a0<em>trade what we see, NOT what we think.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Living and breathing this mantra allows us to <strong>keep our thoughts in the present and go with the flow,<\/strong> which runs counter to many traders who do the opposite by first developing an opinion on where the market should go, then\u00a0sticking with that opinion <em>even when it is clearly wrong.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>If you find yourself trading without discipline of a rule-based market timing system, or found\u00a0yourself lost during the recent correction in the market, sign up now for your risk-free subscription to our <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">nightly swing trading newsletter<\/a><\/strong> and learn a most disciplined, yet simple, approach to trading.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cfmonitor\" style=\"padding-top: 30px;\"><center><script src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\" async=\"\"><\/script><!-- Footer of content - Large --> <ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 336px; height: 280px;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7565144363001883\" data-ad-slot=\"6017996961\"><\/ins><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/center><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After a nasty selloff in late August, stocks temporarily gave investors a bit of hope (a dangerous emotion in trading) by rallying higher in the first half of September, but the bullish enthusiasm was short-lived. Due to an abundance of overhead supply left in the wake of the August decline, the main stock market indexes\u00a0ran [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-trading-strategy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4383"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4383\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11284,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4383\/revisions\/11284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}