{"id":3223,"date":"2013-10-09T14:10:03","date_gmt":"2013-10-09T18:10:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/?p=3223"},"modified":"2022-04-06T15:05:05","modified_gmt":"2022-04-06T19:05:05","slug":"market-timing-buy-signal-danger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/market-timing-buy-signal-danger\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Our Stock Market Timing &#8220;Buy&#8221; Signal Is Now Clinging To A Cliff"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s (October 8) selloff was broad-based and ugly, with just about every industry sector getting hit hard (utilities were an exception).<\/p>\n<p>The NASDAQ Composite ($COMP) and small-cap Russell 2000 Index ($RUT), the leading market averages in recent months, were hit the hardest with losses of -2.0% and -1.7% respectively.<\/p>\n<p>The NASDAQ is now the <b>only index still trading above the 50-day moving average<\/b> (but not by much).<\/p>\n<p>Individual leadership stocks, typically small to mid-cap stocks with a strong history and outlook of earnings growth, were hit hard as well.<\/p>\n<p>Whenever the major indices undergo a price correction, one of the most important factors we analyze is <strong>how well leading stocks hold up and show relative strength<\/strong> to the broad market.<\/p>\n<p>So, where does this leave us as we enter the new week?<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">TABLE OF CONTENTS<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/market-timing-buy-signal-danger\/#How_To_Know_When_The_Tide_Is_Turning\" >How To Know\u00a0When The Tide Is Turning<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/market-timing-buy-signal-danger\/#So_Is_The_Tide_Turning\" >So, Is The Tide Turning?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/market-timing-buy-signal-danger\/#Balancing_On_The_Cliff\" >Balancing On The Cliff<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/market-timing-buy-signal-danger\/#Keeping_On_Our_Toes\" >Keeping On Our Toes<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/market-timing-buy-signal-danger\/#How_To_Be_Profitable_In_A_Reversing_Market_Simple_Math\" >How To Be Profitable In A Reversing Market? Simple Math<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_To_Know_When_The_Tide_Is_Turning\"><\/span><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-3224\" alt=\"Market Timing Buy Signal Reversing\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/cliffhanger-233x300.jpg\" width=\"233\" height=\"300\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/cliffhanger-233x300.jpg 233w, https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/cliffhanger-85x110.jpg 85w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 233px) 100vw, 233px\" \/>How To Know\u00a0When The Tide Is Turning<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>If leading stocks show relative strength by mostly ignoring weakness in the S&amp;P, Dow, and NASDAQ during broad-based price corrections, it&#8217;s a positive sign that tells us it&#8217;s safe to carry on entering new trades of these <strong>leading growth stocks, the best stocks to buy in a healthy market.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>However, when top stocks begin succumbing to the weight of the broad market&#8217;s downward pressure, it quickly grabs our attention and tells us it&#8217;s<strong> time to lay off the gas pedal<\/strong> and take a more proactive stance with regard to managing existing positions for <strong>maximum profits and minimal losses.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"So_Is_The_Tide_Turning\"><\/span><strong>So, Is The Tide Turning?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Yesterday, market leader <strong>LinkedIn Corporation ($LNKD)<\/strong> sliced through key support of its 50-day moving average on volume that surged to roughly 300% its average daily level. This volume spike tells us banks, hedge funds, mutual funds, and other institutions were driving the selling. Not a good sign for bulls.<\/p>\n<p>Other leading stocks that sold off on heavy volume yesterday included: <strong>Qihoo 360 Technology ($QIHU), Vipshop Holdings ($VIPS), Soufun Holdings ($SFUN), Pandora Media ($P), Mercadolibre ($MELI), Priceline.com ($PCLN), and Amazon.com ($AMZN).\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Although $PCLN and $AMZN had a rough day, both stocks are still trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (an intermediate-term &#8220;line in the sand&#8221; for many retail and institutional traders\/investors).<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Balancing_On_The_Cliff\"><\/span><strong>Balancing On The Cliff<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>The broad market rally is just barely hanging on. If leading stocks begin cracking below their 50-day moving averages en masse, our proprietary\u00a0Market Timing Model will be forced to shift from &#8220;buy&#8221; to &#8220;sell&#8221; mode.<\/p>\n<p>If you&#8217;re new to the role that market timing rules play into our overall ETF and stock picking selection, please <a title=\"A Market Timing System That Works On Any Market In The World\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/market-timing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here<\/a> to learn the general concept of our system for market timing, then check out <a title=\"5 Modes Of Our Market Timing System\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/market-timing-system\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">this article<\/a> that explains the five, rule-based modes of our model for timing the stock market.<br \/>\n<a name=\"toes\"><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Keeping_On_Our_Toes\"><\/span><strong>Keeping On Our Toes<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Yesterday was a busy day for subscribers of <strong><em><a title=\"The Wagner Daily signup page\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Wagner Daily<\/a><\/em><\/strong>, our nightly swing trading newsletter (which includes access to our market timing methodology).<\/p>\n<p>On the individual stock side, we sold Bitauto ($BITA) and LifeLock ($LOCK) for<b> decent share price gains of 36.7% and 13.8% respectively.<\/b> LinkedIn ($LNKD) hit our stop and we sold for an average loss of just 2.7%. \u00a0In case you missed it, you may want \u00a0to check out\u00a0<em><a title=\"Trading Strategy Video Detailing Buy Entry Into LifeLock ($LOCK)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/buy-pullback-lifelock-lock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">How We Bought A Pullback In LifeLock ($LOCK) For A 15% Gain\u2026So Far<\/a>, <\/em>a trading strategy video from a few weeks ago that explains why we bought $LOCK when we did.<\/p>\n<p>As for the ETF side, we sold two existing ETF trades yesterday to minimize losses. On <strong>SPDR Biotech ($XBI)<\/strong> and <strong>Direxion Small-Cap Bull 3x ($TNA)<\/strong>, we lost 3.6% and 6.3% respectively. However, these losses were much smaller than the <strong>44% gain we secured in Guggenheim Solar ETF ($TAN) <\/strong>last week (check back on this blog for an educational technical review of this $TAN trade by the end of this week.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_To_Be_Profitable_In_A_Reversing_Market_Simple_Math\"><\/span><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-3225 alignright\" alt=\"Profitable Stock Trading Is All About Math\" src=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/deduce.jpg\" width=\"256\" height=\"205\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/deduce-110x88.jpg 110w, https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/deduce-300x240.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px\" \/>How To Be Profitable In A Reversing Market? Simple Math<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Many traders, particularly newbies, are obsessed with the accuracy of win rates (percentage of winning trades vs. losing trades) when analyzing how well a trading system is likely to perform over the long-term.<\/p>\n<p>However, the reality is that a trader&#8217;s long-term profitability depends largely on other factors, such as the dollar amount of the average winning trade compared to the dollar amount of the average losing trade.<\/p>\n<p>If, for example, a trader has a win rate of 70%, but allows their average losing trade to be 300% larger than their average winning trade, he\/she\u00a0will be net negative over the long-term.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, if a trader has a win rate of just 50%, but allows the average winning trades to ride to being just double (200%) the size of an average losing trade,<strong>\u00a0the trader will become net profitable over the long-term.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Lately, we&#8217;ve been closing our swing trades with about a 50% win rate (maybe even slightly lower), but our average gain has been MUCH larger than the average loser.<\/p>\n<p>With the three stock trades we closed yesterday ($BITA, $LOCK, and $LNKD), our average winner was a share price gain of 25.3%, while the sole losing trade was just 2.7%.<\/p>\n<p>That makes for a <strong>whopping\u00a0reward-risk ratio of more than 9 to 1<\/strong> (anything ratio above 3 to 1 is generally considered to be quite good).<\/p>\n<p><em>To ensure you are alerted to when it&#8217;s time to start buying stocks again, based on our rule-based model, sign up today for your risk-free trial to <strong><a title=\"The Wagner Daily\" href=\"https:\/\/www.morpheustrading.com\/services\/swing-trade-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Wagner Daily<\/a><\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n<div id=\"cfmonitor\"><center><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-7565144363001883\"; \/* Footer of content *\/ google_ad_slot = \"7002222565\"; google_ad_width = 300; google_ad_height = 250;\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\n\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/center><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s (October 8) selloff was broad-based and ugly, with just about every industry sector getting hit hard (utilities were an exception). The NASDAQ Composite ($COMP) and small-cap Russell 2000 Index ($RUT), the leading market averages in recent months, were hit the hardest with losses of -2.0% and -1.7% respectively. The NASDAQ is now the only [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-trading-strategy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3223"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3223\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11368,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3223\/revisions\/11368"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/morpheustrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}